Oxford Analytica provides this analysis as a complimentary service to the members of the Globe Forum Business Network. To trial the full service, please contact Michael Bruce mbruce@oxford-analytica.com.


CHINA: Energy output from wind and gas increases
Wind power electricity generation grew by 95.2% last year, to 5.6 billion kilowatt hours, the China Electricity Council is reported today as saying. Confirming earlier National Development and Reform Commission figures, capacity increased to just over 6.0 million kilowatts in 2007, up from just under 2.7 million kilowatts at the end of 2006. Work-in-progress will add over 4.0 million kilowatts to total installed capacity when completed. This puts China well on track to exceed its 10 million kilowatt target for 2015, the more so because Beijing might be expected to approve more projects. Wind power is renewable, but also clean, a factor that is also driving up natural gas production in China, reported today as having risen 23.1% last year, to 69.3 billion cubic metres. China will continue to invest heavily in natural gas and wind power capacity over coming years, but also on distribution networks and energy grids, where bottlenecks could occur.


RUSSIA/EUROPE: OSCE will not observe March 2 vote
A Russian Foreign Ministry source expressed surprise yesterday that the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) was not sending observers to the March 2 presidential election. Both its Parliamentary Assembly and Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) announced their decisions separately on Thursday; the ODHIR blamed Russia for limiting their numbers and time in Russia. Russia invited 75 ODIHR observers, a severe cut compared with 2004; Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said yesterday the OSCE had rejected his compromise that some come this week and the main mission on February 20. The ODIHR did not monitor the December parliamentary elections because of restrictions; the Parliamentary Assembly sent observers then but being restricted now to 30 has withdrawn. Moscow objects to the OSCE monitoring member countries' compliance with democratic standards and sees monitoring of its elections as no longer appropriate. Its restrictions on observers were a severe blow to their effectiveness, but the OSCE arguably should not have withdrawn altogether.


POLAND: Government lacks policy on public sector pay
As Donald Tusk's administration completes its first three months with its high popularity ratings only just starting to fall, it has postponed rather than solved settling the grievances of public sector employees, whose wave of wage-related protests has swept the country. The government is not developing plausible policy proposals that might allow it to accommodate public sector wage demands without lasting damage to the public finances and the economy's overall performance. Although the government seems to have fended off the first wave of the protests, public sector wage pressure is likely to continue.


All content copyright © Oxford Analytica, 1984-2008. All rights reserved. No forwarding, duplication or distribution of this material is permitted without the express written permission of Oxford Analytica.